A Casual's Guide to the 2022 Academy Awards
In case you haven’t heard—because there’s an actual chance you haven’t—the 94th Academy Awards is scheduled to air on ABC on March 27th. As a culture, we’ve strayed far from the days when the Oscars felt somewhat centered. They’ve taken a massive nosedive in mainstream popularity over the last two decades, culminating in a record low 9.85 million viewers tuning into last year’s show. For context, that’s almost 50 million less than those who tuned in to watch James Cameron’s Titanic clinch gold in 1998.
While there are countless reasons for the huge decline in viewership, many of which we’ll get into, the fundamental truth is that the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences is having a much harder time finding an audience in today’s landscape. In light of 2021 being a weird year in movies, the announced nomination slate might befuddle the general public who probably spent money to see maybe one or two movies last year.
Aside from a few notable exceptions, this year’s nomination slate is a particularly diverse array of movies that most people probably didn’t take the time to go and see. But don’t worry, I’ll do my best to get you covered before everyone goes berserk about it on Twitter. Here’s an abridged guide to the movies, the stars, and storylines underlining the biggest night in movies.
The Storyline: The Academy introduces a “Fan Favorite Film” award voted by Twitter.
The Significance: Numbers don’t lie—Academy Awards viewership has tanked over recent years. Whether that’s due to a dwindling interest in film or the sheer diversity of avenues that we can now ingest entertainment, the bottom line is simple: in order to adapt, the Academy needs to make a dramatic shift in its recognition efforts. Having said that, implementing a Twitter vote is like recognizing the movies people actually watched with a “Great Try!” medal.
The Academy bears a time-honored responsibility of recognizing the highest caliber films each year but with movie theaters shutting down at such an alarming rate, the Academy now bears a wider obligation to the longevity of movies. If they’re not flexible enough to give so much as a nomination to the great movies that people actually went out and saw, they’re not just hurting the future of movies, they’re also de-incentivizing viewers from having any reason to tune in altogether.
Prediction: In all likelihood, Spider-Man: No Way Home will win this award. That way, the Academy can proudly claim that they gave commendation to a movie that surpassed Avatar in box office revenue, without having to compromise the sanctity of their Best Picture nominees. Having nominated Black Panther and Avengers: Endgame in years past, it wasn’t farfetched to believe they’d do the same for Spidey.
The Storyline: The Academy recognizes Kristen Stewart’s ascension from Twilight star to Best Actress nominee as Princess Diana in Spencer.
The Significance: Just like her franchise counterpart Robert Pattinson, Stewart has been on quite a run since her time in Forks, Washington. In the wake of her commercial launch point, she’s taken on a number of diverse roles from Joan Jett in The Runaways to a stoned action hero in American Ultra. Last year she finally got her first shot at award stardom as the Princess of Wales in a deeply unsettling historical drama-thriller directed by Pablo Larraín.
Though Spencer’s script is drenched in melodrama, Stewart portrays Princess Diana with a certain restraint necessary for the role. She exhibits a quiet agony that hides beyond her striking beauty, which help to illustrate Diana Spencer as a woman mercilessly bound by the confines of the British monarchy.
Prediction: Gone are the days when she was riding shotgun in Edward’s Volvo; Kristen Stewart has a long and illustrious road ahead of her. Despite her tireless promotion and her career-topping performance in Spencer, I don’t see the Academy awarding her over Olivia Colman or Penelope Cruz, both of which who have won previously.
The Storyline: Netflix doubles down on their chances at a Best Picture win with Don’t Look Up and The Power of the Dog.
The Significance: After 300 original films, 200 million subscribers, and 7 Best Picture nominations, a coveted Oscar still eludes the Silicon Valley-based streaming giant. This year finds their biggest betting odds of a Best Picture win with two contenders from some of the biggest names in the industry.
The former being Adam McKay’s Don’t Look Up, an apocalyptic satire starring Leo DiCaprio and Jennifer Lawrence. The latter of which is a far more grounded, brooding, atmospheric Old West drama starring Benedict Cumberbatch, Kirsten Dunst, Kodi Smitt McPhee, and Jesse Plemons; and they boast the ultimate flex in that all of them are also nominated for performance Oscars.
Prediction: Don’t Look Up is a fun film with tremendous star power and massive popularity, but the Academy almost never recognizes comedy in the Best Picture race. Conversely, The Power of the Dog has a gigantic chance of taking Best Picture this year, among many other awards.
The Storyline: Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s Drive My Car has been nominated for four Academy Awards, including Best Picture, Best International Feature, and Best Director.
The Significance: The Academy’s push toward broader recognition for world cinema reached its apex in 2020 when Bong Joon-Ho’s Parasite took home four awards out of six nominations, becoming the first foreign-language film ever to win Best Picture. With the barrier broken for Asian cinema, Ryusuke Hamaguchi slipped into the jetstream with Drive My Car, a powerful drama and front runner in this year’s Academy Awards.
Here’s the thing: Parasite is an entirely different species than Drive My Car. Where Parasite had universal currency as a tense social thriller, Drive My Car is a consummate arthouse drama that mostly features people talking. While beautiful and thought-provoking, its emotional reckoning hits with the kind of quiet that makes you afraid to chew popcorn in a crowded theater. So if you’d rather watch this three-hour opus at home, you’re in luck—Drive My Car has arrived on HBO Max.
Prediction: Though it has steep competition in every category that it’s nominated for, I feel that Drive My Car is the biggest threat to The Power of the Dog in the race for Best Picture.
The Storyline: Kenneth Branaugh’s semi-autobiographical drama Belfast is nominated for Best Picture and Best Director. Can Branaugh take home either?
The Significance: The Academy has a soft spot for decorated filmmakers whose autobiographical films are crafted with sentimentality, much like Alphonso Cuaron’s Roma which famously won for Best Director but fell short of the Best Picture win.
Branaugh’s Belfast is a heartfelt ode to the enduring bonds of kinship amidst civil unrest in the late 60s. Told from the perspective of an observant young boy (Jude Hill), the film is clearly pulled from a thread of Branaugh’s own childhood experiences, having lived through the tumult of The Troubles in Northern Ireland.
Prediction: Belfast is a good wild card pick for Best Picture. If Branaugh falls short, he can always throw on a mustache and summon Hercule Poirot to investigate the voting body.
The Storyline: Questlove made his directorial debut with Summer of Soul. Will he be able to snag Best Documentary?
The Significance: Ahmir “Questlove” Thompson is a true renaissance man: he’s an actor, DJ, writer, social activist, and the Grammy Award-winning percussionist behind The Roots. Add director to that list with 2021’s Summer of Soul, an energetic documentary that explores the Harlem Cultural Festival of 1969. The music and arts gathering took place over the same Summer as Woodstock, though it has since evaporated from the cultural awareness.
Summer of Soul examines the shared perspectives of unity and struggle through the eyes of attendees and artists who headlined. Over the course of one fateful weekend, all of Harlem came together in a cathartic musical healing experience just one year after the assassination of MLK Jr. Questlove brings three days’ worth of lost footage to light, resurrecting the long-forgotten memories of a festival featuring some of the biggest names of its time including Stevie Wonder, the 5th Dimension, Sly & the Family Stone, Mahalia Jackson, and Nina Simone, just to name a few.
Prediction: If Jonas Poher Rasmussen’s Flee doesn’t win Best Documentary, Questlove better make some room on his trophy shelf next to his three Grammys. For anyone interested, you can find Summer of Soul streaming on Hulu and Disney plus.
The Storyline: In an effort to combat the decline in ratings, the Academy announces they’ll be shortening their televised ceremony.
The Significance: Filmmakers and fans have been widely disavowing the Academy’s controversial decision to shorten the televised ceremony as a means to streamline the broadcast. In doing so, they’re making the deliberate choice to exclude eight separate categories from the telecast, including Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Production Design, and Sound.
This isn’t the first time the Academy has tried to do this; infamously the 91st Academy Awards also opted to present four categories during commercial breaks, which resulted in criticism so profound that they reversed their decision just a few days later.
Prediction: Because of their increasingly misguided decisions to institute regulatory changes that no one asked for, the resulting backlash only points to a prevalence of distrust from the artists who are meant to be celebrated, which could affect their subsequent participation altogether.
The Storyline: King Richard is Will Smith’s third shot at Best Actor. Third time’s a charm?
The Significance: After falling short on his past nominations with Ali and The Pursuit of Happiness, Will Smith gives what is arguably his finest performance in King Richard, a biopic about Richard Williams, the enigmatic father of Venus and Serena. As we follow the twin tennis prodigies from a concrete hellscape to the biggest courts on the world stage, Smith’s work distinguishes itself as a tear-jerking display of veteran acting chops.
Last November, the movie was given a day and date release simultaneously in theaters and on HBO Max. Since then it has found mass appeal, with many critics citing the power of Smith’s transformative performance. The Academy also nominated them for categories in Best Picture, Best Original Screenplay, and Best Supporting Actress for Aunjanue Ellis.
Prediction: Hard to call when you’re going up against Denzel Washington and Benedict Cumberbatch. My guess is that one of those three takes it home. If Smith does win, he can finally avenge his lack of recognition for Wild Wild West.
The Storyline: AppleTV+ officially enters the awards race with Coda and The Tragedy of Macbeth.
The Significance: Now that the Apple overlords have found their breadwinning series in the Emmy-winning Ted Lasso, they’re throwing their name into the hat for feature films with their strongest year to date. In 2021, they distributed seven movies through their proprietary streaming platform, including two award contenders in Sian Heder’s Coda and Joel Coen’s The Tragedy of Macbeth.
Both of Apple’s films are nominated for three awards apiece including Coda for Best Picture and The Tragedy of Macbeth for Best Actor in Denzel Washington. The latter should be no surprise, as Denzel is always marvelous with a great script, and in case you forgot: Shakespeare was a pretty good writer. But the inclusion of Coda is a watershed moment, with a primary cast that is mostly comprised of deaf performers.
Prediction: Denzel is a force of nature but he has competition for Best Actor. It’s also worth noting that Shakespeare hasn’t been on the podium since Shakespeare in Love won Best Picture in 1998, which is not even a joke. Joel Coen’s adaptation has a bigger chance of winning in the technical categories for Best Production Design or Cinematography.
Coda is a big underdog in the race for Best Picture. The film has been well-received and it’s widely adored by people who’ve seen it. If it wins, it’ll be a celebratory affair for the deaf community in their onscreen representation. Troy Kotsur, however, has the biggest chance of winning for Best Supporting Actor, who’s slated to become the second deaf actor ever to take home an award.
The Storyline: Paul Thomas Anderson is recognized in three major categories: Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Original Screenplay for his work on Licorice Pizza.
The Significance: The Los Angeles-born and bred filmmaker is no stranger to the critical spotlight; at 51 years of age, he’s racked up nine Oscar nominations, including three respective nods in each major filmmaking category—though famously, he’s never won.
His latest film Licorice Pizza is a scrappy coming-of-age tale set in the San Fernando Valley in the 1970s. The film drips with delightful nostalgia and glides on its strong lead performances by newcomers Alana Haim and Cooper Hoffman, the son of late PTA alum Phillip Seymour Hoffman. While the film infamously details a controversial relationship between a teenage boy and a 25-year old girl, it stands as one of PTA’s most personal and endearing works.
Prediction: Despite how immaculate his body of work is, it’s important to acknowledge that he probably should have won by now. But that’s the Oscars, where even the biggest legends get stiffed. Just look at Al Pacino; if he couldn't win Best Actor until he went blind for Scent of a Woman, maybe PTA’s time just hasn’t come yet. If I were to guess, I’d say his strongest chance is for Best Original Screenplay this year.
The Storyline: Do believe the hype. Steven Spielberg’s West Side Story is as good as people say it is.
The Significance: How silly we were to think that Steven Spielberg lost his fastball. Sure, the argument could be made that he hasn’t directed a bonafide classic in nearly two decades. But let’s not forget that he’s credited with pioneering the modern-day blockbuster. And at the ripe age of 75, his gift is still giving, resulting in one of the most masterfully executed musicals of the 21st century.
Spielberg’s iteration of West Side Story boasts many flourishes of deeply inspired filmmaking: his colors are more vibrant than they’ve been in years, the camera movements are more dynamic, and its young ensemble is enthralling in their song, dance, and performance. As a comprehensive directorial effort, West Side Story is the strongest Spielberg has been since Saving Private Ryan. The Academy seemed to agree, nominating it in seven categories that include Best Picture, Best Director, Best Cinematography, and Best Supporting Actress for Ariana DeBose.
Prediction: I think Spielberg has a great shot at winning Best Director for the third time. If you didn’t get to catch this in theaters, you can log onto HBO Max and Disney Plus to find out for yourself.
The Storyline: No love for Ridley Scott; the 84-year-old director was fleeced for both of his films of 2021.
The Significance: Age is nothing but a number for Ridley Scott, the decorated filmmaker who has stayed busy since lockdown commenced. From The Last Duel to House of Gucci, both of his 2021 releases were met with strong critical praise, though neither was recognized in this year’s Oscars race, aside from a Best Makeup and Hairstyling nod for the latter.
Given Ridley Scott’s extensive history of award recognition, it perplexed many that neither was nominated in technical or acting categories. While the word-of-mouth reputation has been famously contentious, the critical valuation praised The Last Duel and House of Gucci as well-executed craftsman movies with dynamic performances, masterfully staged sequences, and noteworthy effort in costuming and production design.
Prediction: House of Gucci may have a shot at Best Makeup and Hairstyling but due to the Academy’s controversial effort to shorten their broadcast, sadly none of us will be able to see it.
The Storyline: Encanto vs. Flee: an animated showdown for the ages.
The Significance: Of all categories, the clash for Best Animated Feature Film is probably the one most visibly impacted by the inequality of exposure due to big studio marketing.
For all intents and purposes, Encanto is the textbook Disney product; ever since its arrival on Disney Plus, its influence has become literally unavoidable. On the other hand, Jonas Poher Rasmussen’s Flee was a big hit at Sundance, though received almost no commercial buzz whatsoever.
Upon watching both, it kind of makes sense: one is a kid-friendly culture piece with a catchy soundtrack, the other is a harrowing documentary about a young gay man escaping war-torn Afghanistan. Flee’s narrative unfolds with devastating execution that unpacks some incredibly dense themes of war, masculine identity, religious persecution, and a home you can’t go back to. Though they’re both animated movies that celebrate multiculturalism, only one is told with pulverizing honesty.
Prediction: Sorry Lin-Manuel Miranda fans; in all likelihood, Flee—which is also nominated for Best Documentary and Best International Feature—deserves to win in this category. To see for yourself, catch it on Hulu streaming now.
The Storyline: Joachim Trier’s The Worst Person in the World was one of the most critically beloved movies of 2021. Will it take home an Oscar?
The Significance: In all reality, this might be the first you’re hearing about Joachim Trier’s darkly humorous romantic comedy, but among certain circles, it’s been one of the most discussed movies of the decade so far.
The intelligently scripted Norwegian film follows a young woman in her late-twenties (Renate Reinsve) as she navigates the existential peril of finding oneself at a crossroads in life, love, and opportunity. Its chaptered narrative structure is a profound exploration of that awkward but relatable phase in your life where sometimes you’re left with no choice but to “do you”.
Prediction: While it’s also nominated for Best International Feature, Trier’s best chance of competing will find him toe-to-toe against PTA for Licorice Pizza in the Best Original Screenplay category.
